Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
